In a new Wall Street Journal piece, Karl Rove lists five reasons why Republicans should be optimistic about keeping their Senate majority:
1. "First, the states Republicans won in 2014 tilted far more Republican than the states with GOP incumbents up next year tilt Democrat."
2. "Second, it is hard to beat an incumbent … seven of eight Republican senators in states Mr. Obama carried at least once are running for re-election."
3. "Third, Democrats are struggling to recruit Senate candidates."
4. "The fourth problem for Democrats is they will be playing defense in at least two purple states: Nevada … and Colorado."
5. "Finally, each incumbent Republican senator is busy raising money, building serious organizations and compiling a governing record that appeals to independents and Democrats so they run ahead of the GOP presidential candidate in their states."
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report is also acknowledging:
"If you look at the math for Democrats, it is not easy to get back the majority."
With popular GOP incumbents running for re-election against weak Democratic challengers, Republicans are on the path to victory.