KJZZ reports
U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick will have an uphill battle against longtime incumbent Sen. John McCain when she runs for his Senate seat in 2016.
With more than $3 million already raised, McCain is going for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. Enter Kirkpatrick, who narrowly won the race for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District in 2014.
Kirkpatrick’s decision to run for Senate leaves a vacancy in Arizona’s first congressional district, a major pickup opportunity for House Republicans.
Meanwhile, she faces an difficult race against Senator John McCain, a popular incumbent and proven winner.
The New York Times underscores this:
Mr. McCain has trounced a string of low-profile Arizona Democrats in his 30-year career … In 2004, he received more than 75 percent of the general election vote and in 2010 nearly 60 percent.
Strong Arizona Democrats like former Governor Bruce Babbitt passed on races against Mr. McCain with good reason — Mr. McCain does well with Democratic voters too. … [Kirkpatrick] or any other politician who challenges him should be ready — Mr. McCain is not the type of person who intends to lose what is most likely his last race.
The Arizona Republic also sounded off on the Arizona race:
Ideologically, McCain is still a good fit for Arizona’s general election electorate: generally conservative, but not doctrinaire.
Moreover, McCain is a fierce campaigner. Long-time incumbents usually lose because they become indifferent or lazy. That won’t be McCain.
The Arizona Republic continued:
In 2012, the last presidential election, Republicans still constituted 40 percent of all votes cast. In raw numbers, the Republican turnout advantage over Democrats exceeded 200,000.
Given the decline in crossover voting, that requires a Democrat to win a highly improbable share of the independent vote to even be competitive. And since 2012, Democrats have continued to lose registrants faster than Republicans.
Senator John McCain is in great shape for 2016.
Get ready for a fight, Ann Kirkpatrick. You’re going to face a long, tough race ahead.