Stuart Rothenberg wrote in the Washington Post about his moment of clarity:
"Nine months ago, I thought that Democrats had a pretty easy road to a four-seat gain and a Senate majority in November. Now I’m not so sure."
Rothenberg dove into the races, highlighting both Senator Rob Portman and Senator Marco Rubio’s ability to overperform early in their respective races. He wrote that while Sen. Portman "leads challenger Ted Strickland in polls and in money," Sen. Rubio has a "consistent advantage over Democrat Patrick Murphy, who still must boost his name recognition in the large state with many media markets." Rothenberg isn’t the only one considering Democrats’ dreams of a blue Ohio and Florida dead.
In another article by the Washington Post, Jennifer Rubin writes, the Democrats have "given up on Ohio" with most major national Democratic organizations canceling ad time in the Buckeye State. Rubin also held a pessimistic view about Patrick Murphy’s odds at beating Sen. Rubio, saying, "Harry Reid’s handpicked candidate, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.), turned out to be a mediocre campaigner at best, with a number of financial ethics issues weighing him down." Apparently, Harry Reid forgot to vet his candidate before going all in for Murphy – including orchestrating an Obama-Biden endorsement.
Rothenberg also discussed the Indiana race and pointed to Democrat Evan Bayh underperforming in Indiana despite his initial leads.
"Bayh had more political and personal baggage than most Hoosiers initially realized, and he remains vulnerable to GOP attacks as Republicans ‘educate’ Indiana voters about the former senator."
Rubin added that among Evan Bayh’s "political and personal baggage" was his extensive residency issues, quipping:
It didn’t help Bayh when he could not recall accurately his in-state address.
Townhall broke down the Senate battle for Harry Reid’s open seat in Nevada, praising Rep. Joe Heck’s strong background:
"Silver State Republicans are fielding a very strong candidate against Reid’s hand-picked successor: A popular center-right Congressman with a remarkable biography. Cliffs notes version: He’s served three active duty tours in the US Army, he’s an accomplished medical doctor, and he’s a job-creating small businessman."
Nevadans are sick of being represented in the Senate by hyper-partisan Harry Reid, and they know his hand-picked candidate will simply be his puppet in the Senate.
Rubin’s Washington Post article went on to discuss Democrats’ severe missteps in both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. In New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan "was hard-pressed to defend Hillary Clinton’s honesty," and Rubin went on to call McGinty an even "weaker" candidate than Hassan.
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The Hill confirmed the DSCC and top Democrats realized just how serious Rothenberg and Rubin’s reports were.
The campaign chairman for Senate Democrats on Wednesday warned his colleagues that if the elections were held today, the party would gain only three Senate seats, according to lawmakers who were in the room.
That outcome would leave Democrats one seat short of the majority, should the party’s presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, win the White House.
The polls are in, and long story short: Democrats are losing. Even Democrats can’t spin the facts in their favor at this point. The latest polling has the GOP winning in crucial swing states:
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After these polls came out, suddenly everyone wanted to get on board with the majority. Yet another Washington Post reporter became a believer, making the self-proclaimed "remarkable statement":
With 60 days left before the November election, Republicans have a real chance to retain their Senate majority.
The article goes on to outline how we at the NRSC are far exceeding expectations and "the challenge that the 2016 map poses for Republicans." Hot Air even made their headline for their report on the recent poll numbers:
Wow: GOP leads Senate races in all four key battleground states
While the media largely counted us out, they’re finally realizing just how serious Democrats’ recruiting failures are:
It was once thought to be nearly impossible for the Republicans to hold on to their majority. However, with surprisingly easy contests in Ohio and Florida, it no longer seems entirely out of the question. (Rubin, Washington Post, ["Renewed optimism on GOP Senate races"](Renewed optimism on GOP Senate races))
In a third Washington Post analysis of the state of the races, Amber Phillips wrote about the Democrats’ disappointment in candidates and recruiting failures:
Yes, Democrats got their preferred candidates through some tough primaries. But some of those candidates have stumbled since then.
After pouring massive dollars getting their preferred candidates across the finish line, the DSCC is having buyer’s remorse:
Pennsylvania candidate Katie McGinty’s national debut was a hard-to-watch, wooden speech at the Democratic National Convention. A week after he got into the race, former Indiana governor and senator Evan Bayh had to manage bad headlines about whether he actually lives in Indiana, in the sense that the rest of us live in our communities. And Rep. Patrick Murphy, who’s challenging Rubio in Florida, had his own PR battle about questions over his résumé.
The Democratic candidates’ every misstep puts their chances at taking the Majority even further out of reach, and these candidates show no signs of improvement less than two months away from Election Day. Meanwhile, Republican candidates continue to succeed on the campaign trail.
The media acts surprised we’re overperforming and our outlook is bright, but we’ll continue to do what we’ve been doing – running solid campaigns focused locally. Help us by pitching in today:
Updates
Bloomberg has delivered good news for Republicans. In addition to Ohio and Florida pulling ahead, Iowa and Arizona are cruising out of reach for Democrats.
Now, two races Democrats have long targeted — Ohio and Florida — have started to slip away, as have Arizona and Iowa, where top Senate Republicans John McCain and Charles Grassley have built double-digit leads in recent polls.
As Senator Chuck Grassley and Senator John McCain see polls pushing them way in front of their Democratic challengers, Bloomberg also reported that Senate Democrats are in denial, "insisting that their darkening poll numbers, dragged down by Clinton’s unpopularity, aren’t accurate."
Nothing says desperation quite like blaming poll after poll that shows you losing. If they want to ignore what the polls are saying, Republicans will happily let them as we continue to run state-of-the-art digital operations and grassroots-driven campaigns.