With time winding down to announce candidacy, Democrats are second guessing themselves, and are worried about their candidates’ abilities to challenge the experienced Republican incumbents. All in all, Republicans appear to be holding strong leads in North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
Sen Richard Burr is holding a strong advantage in the 2016 election in NC. Sabato’s Crystal Ball states:
"The good news for Republicans is that Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) looks stronger than ever in the Tar Heel State, which has led us to move his contest to Likely Republican. Burr’s improved position comes mainly because the state’s top Democrats have thus far passed on the race."
Democrats cannot find a sufficient candidate that will not refuse to run in NC, leaving them out to dry. In addition, not having a candidate means less time to fundraise, which hurts their overall chance of winning. Nobody wants to take on Burr. Sabato’s Crystal Ball proves:
"Burr’s fundraising head start will make a challenge less and less attractive as time goes on."
"While the DSCC is projecting confidence about the party’s ability to take on Burr, the fact remains: Democrats have no candidate. Moreover, North Carolina has a slight Republican lean at the presidential level, which should assist Burr."
In Florida, Rep Alan Grayson (D, FL-9) and Rep. Patrick Murphy (D, FL-18) are fighting against each other, representing a serious lack of unity in the Democratic party. Sabato’s Crystal Ball says:
"Murphy’s path to victory is to emphasize the personal, like Grayson’s bombastic comments, recent messy marriage annulment, and financial questions, while Grayson will aggressively run to Murphy’s left."
In Pennsylvania, Democrats have finally found a candidate they can back. Gov Tom Wolf’s chief of staff, Katie McGinty announced her candidacy. However, skepticism is her qualifications still leave Toomey a great advantage. Sabato’s Crystal Ball explains:
"Still, McGinty doesn’t exactly have a sterling electoral track record: She got just 7.7% in last year’s gubernatorial primary, finishing last among four candidates and 50 points behind Wolf. Sestak remains a favorite to win his party’s nomination, making a Toomey-Sestak rematch the likeliest outcome."
Republican candidates are looking promising going into 2016.