TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: WARD BAKER, NRSC EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
DATE: JULY 7, 2015
SUBJECT: The New Senate Majority Is Here To Stay
We are just seven months into the new Republican majority and already we have seen a drastic change in how Washington operates. Headlines like “Suddenly, Congress is actually working” and “Democrats are the new party of no” have overwhelmed the airwaves these last couple of months. Voters rejected Harry Reid’s reign of dysfunction and with Leader McConnell at the helm the Senate is finally getting back to work.
Here at the NRSC we are working hard on protecting our new majority. Our incumbents have surpassed all of their internal fundraising goals and have state-of-the-art campaigns that are already working around the clock.
You will never hear us say this will be easy; we will never take our majority for granted. A year-and-a-half is a lifetime in politics and we remember that at this time in 2013 no one thought we could win the majority.
We believe that we have the right candidates, a forward-leaning strategy and a robust data and digital operation that will ensure our New Senate Majority is here to stay.
CANDIDATES MATTER
You cannot have strong and competitive candidates without an aggressive, bottom-up approach to recruitment. Local and National Republicans have dominated state and House elections for the past few cycles, which has left Democrats with weak candidates who have little experience. Due to this void, Democrats have adopted a “Rookies and Retreads” recruiting strategy. This strategy has produced fundamentally flawed candidates, and given Democrats primary troubles in races across the country.
Their top-down approach to recruiting has earned them these bruising headlines:
- Associated Press: Democrats turn to proven losers in key swing states as they aim to retake Senate in 2016
- CNN: Dems face primary battles of their own
- Politico: Senate race shows emerging Democratic rifts
- CNN: Messy primary fight could cost Democrats Rubio’s Senate seat
- Northeast Ohio Media Group: Ted Strickland vs. P.G. Sittenfeld: Potential primary getting testy
- National Journal: Illinois Dems Want an African-American Candidate to Oppose Tammy Duckworth
In fact, Democrats are actually struggling to recruit candidates on their own turf. As of today, Democrats do not have candidates in 16 states, and three of those states President Obama won in 2012 – New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Iowa. Of the few states where they do have candidates on the field they will have to “pull off a rare electoral feat: defeating the people who defeated them six years prior.” They have divisive primaries in at least four states – Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland and maybe Florida. Finally, they have refused to endorse their candidates in Arizona and Indiana.
Our candidates are on the field and we have the best team anyone could draft. The current Senators who are running for re-election in 2016 are the most hard-working, dedicated public servants in the country. Anyone who underestimates our Senators will do so at their own peril.
THE MATH
Make no mistake; Democrats started the cycle with a lot of advantages on paper. Democrats are defending 10 seats compared to 24 for Republicans – President Obama carried all 10 Democratic-held seats in 2012, he also carried seven of the Republican-held seats: Sens. Kelly Ayotte (NH), Chuck Grassley (IA), Ron Johnson (WI), Mark Kirk (IL), Rob Portman (OH), Open (FL), and Pat Toomey (PA). However, it would be a mistake to compare 2016 Republicans to 2014 Democrats.
As Jennifer Duffy at the Cook Political Report explains, “Republicans’ most vulnerable seat in 2016 – at least measured only by the metric of presidential performance – is 10 points less Democratic than West Virginia, Democrats’ most vulnerable seat in 2014, was Republican… the hill that some Republican incumbents face in 2016 isn’t as steep as the hill Democrats were forced to climb in 2014.”
Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Currently, the Cook Political Report has three Republican-held seats and one Democrat-held seat listed in the Toss-Up column, the Rothenberg Gonzales Political Report has two Republican-held seats in Pure Toss Up and one Democrat-held seat. Before the November 2014 elections, Rothenberg Gonzales had four Democrat seats listed as Tilt/Lean Republican and two Democrat seats listed in Toss Up. The Cook Political Report had seven seats listed in the Toss Up column, and three Democratic seats in lean, likely or solid Republican.
All of this to say, Democrats have failed to recruit the candidates they need to make even Obama states competitive.
STATE BY STATE:
Nevada: Harry Reid made a decision that he would rather leave the Senate than lose in 2016. As Senator Joe Manchin recently said, “His leadership and the things he thought would work did not."
Although Harry Reid is retiring, he is trying to anoint a successor. Unfortunately for former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, Harry Reid’s endorsement has been the kiss of death. In 2014 many Democrats in Nevada that were handpicked by Reid lost. Reid recruited Lucy Flores to run for Lt. Governor to prevent Governor Sandoval from challenging Reid in 2016, but she failed to break 40% against Lt. Governor Mark Hutchison. In 2010, while Reid was winning reelection, his son, Rory Reid, was handily defeated by Brian Sandoval.
Nevada is now under total GOP control with Governor Sandoval carrying 70% of the state in 2014. Despite President Obama winning Nevada by 6% in 2012, Senator Heller still won statewide, and Rep. Heck won by 7% in the 3rd District where Mitt Romney received 49%.
Yesterday, Joe Heck announced that he is running for the open Senate seat. Heck has dedicated his life to serving our country and Nevada families. As a trusted physician for over 35 years, Dr. Heck put patients first and has done the same for his Nevada constituents. A Brigadier General in the U.S. Army Reserves, Heck has been called to active duty three times, including a deployment to Iraq in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Take one look at General and Dr. Heck and you understand he is someone who is a problem-solver who will always put Nevada families first. His candidacy will be in great contrast to Cortez-Masto who has put her political interests above Nevada.
Recent Polling: Joe Heck has led every public poll conducted since Harry Reid announced his retirement. Further problematic for Democrats, the President’s approval rating continues to hover in the mid to low 40’s in a state he won twice.
Colorado: Make no mistake Senator Michael Bennet is the most vulnerable incumbent in 2016. Senator Cory Gardner’s victory in 2014 demonstrated that Republicans can win Colorado. Despite their $60 million, highly touted get-out-the vote “Bannock Street Project” effort Democrats still lost Colorado in 2014. Gardner’s win in the home state of the DSCC Chairman Michael Bennet was the first time since 1972 that a Senate campaign committee chairman saw a home state colleague lose their seat. In addition to Senator Gardner’s victory, Republicans won 3 out 4 statewide elections in 2014 and took control of the Colorado State Senate. I like to remind folks that Senator Cory Gardner announced his candidacy in March of 2014 and beat an incumbent even though most media outlets didn’t list the state in their top ten list.
Colorado was also ground zero for the Democrats’ failed ‘War on Women’ strategy. Moreover, despite the “Bannock Street Project’s" attempt to turnout more women, Colorado’s female turnout was the lowest it has been since 1992 according to ABC’s exit polls.
In 2010, as an incumbent, Senator Bennet won by a mere 1.7% (48.1%-46.4%). Already, Bennet is facing significant criticism from his left. In fact, environmental activists protested his campaign kick-off over his votes on the Keystone Pipeline. The AFL-CIO launched a digital campaign against Bennet over trade legislation.
Recent Polling: Two consecutive polls conducted by Quinnipiac had the President’s approval at 42% and 43% respectively in the state.
Florida: Republicans’ performance in years past demonstrate the historic success of Republicans statewide in Florida. Republicans have won the last four gubernatorial elections and Senator Rubio won the seat in 2010 by 19% of the vote. Furthermore, Florida Republicans are coming off an extremely successful 2014 cycle. In addition to Governor Rick Scott’s victory, the three other Republican members of the Florida Cabinet won reelection with margins ranging from 13% – 17.8%. Republicans picked up six seats to win a super-majority in the Florida House of Representatives as well. Republicans also hold 17 of the 27 U.S. House seats in Florida.
As the Rothenberg Gonzales Political Report recently pointed out, the last Democrat to win a Senate race not named Bill Nelson or Bob Graham was Lawton Chiles in 1982. The DSCC’s anointed candidate, Patrick Murphy, has little name ID outside of his home district and discontent among progressives could fuel a bitter primary in a state with 10 media markets. DNC Chair and Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz specifically mentioned a number of Florida mayors as potential alternatives to Murphy. Also, the Florida Democratic Progressive Caucus is urging controversial Rep. Alan Grayson to enter the race.
Republicans won open Senate races in 2004 and 2010 and we’re confident that we will hold the seat in 2016. Republicans will have several options to choose from. Rep. Ron DeSantis announced his candidacy in May and Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Rep. Jeff Miller appear to be close to making a decision regarding the race.
Recent Polling: Public polling in Florida demonstrates two things conclusively: that none of the Republican or Democratic candidates are well known, and that Barack Obama’s approval rating is significantly inverted.
Illinois: Senator Mark Kirk has proven to be an independent leader who has reached across the aisle to get things done. His compelling personal narrative and experience winning difficult races make him a strong candidate. Meanwhile, Tammy Duckworth has consistently underperformed in her campaigns, and at least one high-profile Democrat candidate is challenging her for the nomination.
Governor Bruce Rauner’s 2014 successful Gubernatorial bid is a recent example of Republican success in Illinois. In his 5 point victory, Rauner won every county with the exception of Democrat stronghold Cook County. Republicans also successfully picked off two U.S. House seats in 2014. Rep. Bob Dold bested incumbent Brad Schneider by 2 points (despite being outspent by over $1 million) in a D+8 seat. Rep. Mike Bost ousted incumbent Bill Enyart by more than 10 points in a D+2 seat.
In recent elections, Republicans have shown their ability to effectively compete for and connect with the diverse electorate across the state, particularly the crucial swing voting population in the suburbs and exurbs around Peoria and Springfield. Senator Kirk already has a statewide network of supporters that he will be building off of this cycle.
Tammy Duckworth has historically underperformed, losing her campaign for a swing seat in 2006, despite the Democrat wave, and in her 2012 race underperformed Obama by 3%. Despite her best attempts to clear the field, Tammy Duckworth will have to defeat Andrea Zopp, CEO of the Urban League. Zopp was recruited by African-American political leaders, as well as President Obama’s former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley. Duckworth has a history of bullying her way through primaries and this cycle will be no different. The recent Chicago mayoral election demonstrates the divide within Illinois Democrats. Democrat Mayor Rahm Emanuel outspent his opponent 25-1 and still went into a runoff. The Duckworth/Durbin team will be going head-to-head with Zopp/Daley team in this primary.
Recent Polling: An SIU poll had the President’s approval at 54% in his home state. The same poll, conducted in early March, had Senator Kirk’s favorability/unfavorability at 44.5% to 21.3%. Senator Kirk is popular with his constituents, even in the Democratic stronghold of Chicago.
Indiana: Senate Republicans will miss Senator Coats and we are confident our Republican nominee will continue his great work. We have a strong bench in the state and the state remains solidly Republican. Republicans hold 7 of 9 Congressional seats and Republicans have super-majorities in the State Legislature. In 2012, Mitt Romney won Indiana with 54.13%, a 10% margin win that represents a significant shift from Obama’s 1% win in 2008. Democrats suffered a devastating set back here when former Governor and Senator Evan Bayh turned down the DSCC. That leaves Democrats with failed Congressman Baron Hill to run for the seat. Potential Republican Candidates include Eric Holcomb, Rep. Todd Young, and Rep. Marlin Stutzman.
Missouri: Despite Jason Kander being the hand-picked candidate of Washington Democrats, Missouri is likely to see a repeat of 2010, when Senator Blunt handily defeated another Democrat Secretary of State and the DSCC abandoned the race in early October. Also, history is not on Jason Kander’s side, Secretaries of State have a terrible record of being elected to the United States Senate.
In 2010, Senator Blunt defeated Democrat Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 54.2% to 40.6%. In doing so, Blunt carried 112 out of 114 counties. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state with 53.7% of the vote, a significant shift from John McCain’s narrow 0.1% win in 2008. Republicans have super-majorities of over 70% in both the State House and State Senate.
While Washington Democrats are crowing about Jason Kander’s recruitment, he is not well liked by his colleagues in Jefferson City, who have called him extraordinarily ambitious. Senator Blunt has earned a reputation for being a hard-working, independent public servant who always stands up for Missouri families.
Recent Polling: The only public poll conducted on the Senate race shows Senator Blunt with a commanding 13% advantage over Democrat Jason Kander.
New Hampshire: Senator Kelly Ayotte is incredibly popular and well respected in New Hampshire. While Governor Hassan is rumored to be contemplating challenging her, she has never experienced a race of this magnitude before. Senator Ayotte is popular in New Hampshire with a 54% Favorable Rating according to Suffolk University. In fact, Senator Ayotte continues to meet and connect with Granite Staters, holding five town halls in January 2015 alone.
Senator Ayotte is a proven fundraiser raising $1.2 million in Q1 of 2015 and she has over $3 million COH, which is a major advantage in a state with less than one million voters and is dominated by one of the most expensive media markets in the country. Hassan has never had to fundraise at the federal level or at the pace required for a U.S. Senate race.
Hassan already is facing scrutiny for the policies she is pursuing in the Governor’s office. Hassan has come under heavy fire recently for her efforts to shutdown the New Hampshire government over her opposition to business tax cuts. Social service providers called the Republican budget the best budget in years and urged the Governor to compromise, yet Hassan stubbornly ignored the needs of the poor, disabled, and elderly.
The last time a Democrat was elected to Senator Ayotte’s seat was in 1974, and it was only held for one term. Another Democrat did not return to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire until Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s election in 2008. Since 1978, Granite Staters have sent a Republican back to the US Senate 11 times and a Democrat only twice.
Recent Polling: President Obama’s numbers are deeply inverted in the state. The last three public polls have had his approval rating at 34% in New Hampshire, including an ARG poll that was released as recently as late June. Furthermore, Senator Ayotte continues lead Governor Hassan in multiple public polls. Not only do the last three polls have Senator Ayotte up, but a Gravis Marketing poll shows the Senator to be up by 7% against Governor Hassan.
North Carolina: Democrats are still reeling from Senator Kay Hagan’s defeat in 2014 and have not identified a credible challenger to Senator Richard Burr. Over $70 million was spent trying to re-elect Kay Hagan and Democrats were still unable to pull her across the finish line. It is not surprising that Hagan recently announced that she won’t challenge Senator Burr in 2016, and her decision confirms that Democrats know they can’t win North Carolina.
Senator Richard Burr is well liked across North Carolina. Senator Burr won by 12 points – over 300,000 votes – in 2010. Democrats will have a tough hill to climb in an expensive state to get their hands on this seat. Over the past three election cycles there has been a very strong Republican trend in the state: In 2014, Thom Tillis beat incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan 49% to 47%; Republicans hold 10 of the 13 U.S. House Seats; for the first time in 20 years, a Republican Governor was elected in 2012; and in 2010, Republicans flipped the State Legislature holding a majority in the State House for the first time since 1994 and a majority in the State Senate for the first time since Reconstruction.
Recent Polling: Senator Burr had a strong lead over Kay Hagan in multiple public polls. Against other potential Democratic candidates, the Senator’s lead is even greater. The President’s numbers have stayed around the mid to low 40’s for most of 2015. At least eight public polls have been conducted in 2015 alone and the President’s approval has remained consistently poor throughout the year, with 7 of the 8 polls showing his approval at 44% or lower.
Ohio: Senator Rob Portman already has a record-breaking $10 million cash on hand, he raised $2.9 million in the 2nd quarter and has a robust political operation in place.
Ohio has trended Republican in recent elections: In 2014, Governor John Kasich beat Democrat Ed Fitzgerald by +30 Points; since 2010, Republicans have swept all six statewide elected positions; and Republicans also hold 12 of the 16 U.S. House seats in Ohio. Senator Portman won his first election to the Senate in 2010 by 18%, winning 82 of the 88 counties in the state.
Meanwhile, Democrats face a divisive primary between 73-year-old former Gov. Ted Strickland and 30-year-old Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld. The 30-year-old City Councilman outpaced Strickland in first quarter fundraising, raising $750,000 to Strickland’s $671,000.
Sittenfeld jumped into the race very early in the cycle, and he is showing no signs of conceding the Democrat Primary to failed Governor Strickland. This race is getting very ugly for Democrats and could easily devolve into a protracted and expensive primary battle. In fact, Strickland’s strong arm tactics to gain the endorsement of the Ohio Democratic Primary have back fired, as top state Democratic Officials have decried the move as undemocratic.
Governor Strickland’s reign in Ohio was controversial to say the least. Under Strickland’s watch, Ohio was 48th in job creation; the state lost nearly 400,000 jobs and he left the state nearly bankrupt. Clearly, not a record Ohio families want to see again. On the other hand, Senator Portman has fought to protect Ohio jobs. Click here to see an example of Senator Portman’s work to protect 125 jobs at Gregory Industries, a guardrail manufacturer in Canton.
Recent Polling: The President’s numbers continue to trend downward in the state. A June 15th poll conducted by Quinnipiac had the President’s approval at a measly 40% in Ohio. In June, a [poll]((http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_60915.pdf) by Democrat polling firm PPP had Senator Portman up 43% to 41%, but Ted Strickland is becoming less popular with voters as they are reminded about his record as Governor.
Pennsylvania: Senator Pat Toomey has spent his time in the Senate working across the aisle to get things done for Pennsylvania families. In 2013, the Philadelphia Enquirer editorial board noted, “It should be comforting to Pennsylvanians that their junior senator isn’t afraid to reach across the aisle to the benefit of all Americans.”
While President Obama won Pennsylvania twice, his margin of victory was cut in half (11% in 2008 to 5% in 2012). Since 1964, Republicans have won U.S. Senate elections 15 times, Democrats just two. Pennsylvania has a long history of federal ticket splitting. The last three times an incumbent Republican senator ran for reelection in presidential years in Pennsylvania, the Republican won, despite the Democrat winning the presidential election. The gap between the senate margin and the presidential margin in those elections was 14, 12, and 12 points. Presidential/Senatorial ticket splitting is the norm in Pennsylvania, and not by just a little bit.
Democrats are facing serious recruitment problems in Pennsylvania and have settled on another repeat candidate in Joe Sestak, who lost to Sen. Toomey in 2010. Sestak’s campaign got a rocky start, with Pennsylvania Democrats noting the campaign’s inability to “get the little things…right.” But that is the least of Sestak’s problems; his radical voting record in Congress will be front and center again in 2016. Former Pennsylvania Governor Democrat Ed Rendel put it best when he said, “Joe Sestak will be Joe Sestak and there’s some downside to that…”
Recent Polling: Dozens of polls have been conducted in 2016 and show Senator Toomey in excellent shape for re-election. The majority of polls have Senator Toomey leading Joe Sestak by double digits, with a May poll by PPP having the Senator leading by as high as 21 points. The most recent Quinnipiac poll, concluded on June 15th, had the Senator with a 47% to 36% lead over Sestak. The same poll had President Obama’s Approval at 42%, while a May 21st PPP poll had the President’s numbers as low as 38%.
Wisconsin: Voters in the Badger State are no strangers to competitive elections and 2016 will be no different. Turnout in Wisconsin is always high; in 2014, it was the second highest in the nation and was close to Presidential year turnout. In 2010 Senator Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold by 5 points – carrying over 78% of counties.
Since Ron Johnson’s win in 2010, Wisconsin has continued to trend Republican: Three straight Republican wins of 5 or more points for Governor Walker; Republicans took control of the State Senate in 2012; and now Republicans enjoy the largest Republican Assembly Majority since 1957.
In continuing Democrats’ 2016 candidate “retread” strategy, Democrat’s are hanging their electoral hopes on former Senator Russ Feingold. According to the Rothenberg Gonzales Political Report, “The last senator to avenge a re-election loss against the same candidate was Peter Gerry in 1934. The Rhode Island Democrat defeated Republican Felix Hebert by 14 points after losing re-election in 1928 by 2 points.” Democrats tried a “retread” candidate in this state in 2012 with Tom Barrett, who lost by a larger margin his second time around.
Recently, Feingold has been embroiled in a campaign finance scandal. After branding himself as a “campaign finance reformer” during his previous terms in the Senate, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel uncovered that Feingold set up a scam PAC that was used to pay Feingold and his former staffer and did little to help candidates. Russ Feingold has become exactly who he spent decades railing against in the Senate – a hypocritical career politician who only cares about himself. Feingold’s hypocrisy will continue to haunt him as he makes his way back to California this summer to teach at Stanford University.
On the other hand, Senator Johnson has been an independent leader for Wisconsin families in the Senate. Using his manufacturing background and his private sector experience, Senator Johnson has dedicated his time in Congress to helping Wisconsin businesses and cutting wasteful spending.
Recent Polling: Only 45% of Wisconsinites approve of the President’s job according to the most recent PPP poll. Former Senator Feingold has been out office for a few years now but has retained high name ID. This has led to some inflated numbers, but look to see those numbers continue to slide, as more revelations come about with Feingold’s PAC scandal.
THE BOTTOM LINE: We aren’t taking anything for granted. We are well positioned to keep the new majority in Republican hands. Our candidates will be better prepared; we will have data-driven campaigns that will effectively communicate our message; and we will be laser focused on ensuring all Republican incumbents ru