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Since 2002, no incumbent senator has won re-election after polling under 45 percent in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. Find out which Democratic incumbents are polling under this number.

Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, Kay Hagan, Mark Udall and Mark Begich are all below 45 percent on the ballot.

In races for 10 seats held by Democrats, Republicans are winning or tied. Throughout 2013, our friends at the DSCC boasted that Republicans could not compete in purple states. Now, Democrats find themselves fighting for their political lives in Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina. New Hampshire, which Democrats expected to be a cakewalk, is now a toss-up.

There is still a long way to go, and defeating incumbents is difficult business. It’s been more than 30 years — 1980 — since Republicans defeated more than two incumbents in one cycle. This is why the RNC's investments in the ground game are so important. They've done an incredible job on the ground so far, and early voting tallies are an encouraging sign for Republicans.

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Tim Cameron | October 31, 2014 |
Senator Pat Roberts is rallying support as Election Day draws near. Roberts received a key endorsement from Bill Snyder, Kansas State University head football coach. Watch Coach Snyder, above, describe why Roberts is the right choice for Kansas:

I think his track record speaks for itself. He is as good as it gets for the state of Kansas. He's an extremely hard worker. He's an honest individual.
Learn more about Pat Roberts' surging campaign here.

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Tim Cameron | October 30, 2014 |


Five days out from Election Day, we're exactly where we need to be — poised to win a Senate majority. It's shaping up much like the 2006 environment, but in reverse.

In 2006, every Republican incumbent below 48 percent on the ballot lost their election. In 2014, history seems to be repeating itself. Democratic incumbents are currently losing in Colorado, Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Democratic incumbents are tied in North Carolina and New Hampshire. In five of these six races, Democratic senators are below 45 percent on the ballot.

In addition to our strong candidates across the map, the national environment favors Republicans. As this week's Washington Post/ABC poll illustrates, Republicans lead the generic ballot by six points: 50 percent to 44 percent. This includes a 17-point lead among independents, 54 percent to 37 percent. Republicans are more trusted to handle the economy, job creation, debt/deficits, and national security/foreign policy. On top of this news, it's no secret that President Obama is more unpopular in battleground states than ever.

Democrats are already pointing fingers and blaming each other. National Journal's Josh Kraushaar describes how the Obama administration is already blaming Democratic candidates:

White House officials are preemptively spinning a midterm defeat, and they're using their own fantasies to do it. They're starting to blame candidates for not supporting President Obama enough. As a top White House official told The Washington Post's Karen Tumulty, "He doesn't think they have any reason to run away from him. He thinks there is a strong message there." This is pure delusion: Obama is the main reason Republicans are well-positioned to win control of the upper chamber next Tuesday. And Democrats' biggest strategic mistake in this election is that most candidates didn't run away far and fast enough. Given the president's rock-bottom approval numbers in the many Republican-friendly Senate states that Democrats needed to win—as well as the reality of a worsening political environment for the party as early as last winter—that distance was a downright necessity. But a host of Senate candidates failed to create it, and the party is likely to pay the price in Senate seats.
We have the momentum. In races for 10 seats held by Democrats, we are winning or tied. With less than a week to go, it’s now all about the ground game — and the RNC is doing excellent work leading that effort.

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Tim Cameron | October 30, 2014 |


Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. secretary of state, has endorsed Joni Ernst. Rice praised Ernst's military background and leadership skills:

Joni Ernst has dedicated her life to the service of others, bravely leading troops in Iraq and safely bringing them home to Iowa. Now Iowans have an opportunity to make her the first female combat veteran to ever serve in the U.S. Senate. We need more leaders, like Joni, who understand America’s role abroad and the threats posed against us. On November 4th, join me in supporting this woman, soldier, and leader. I’m proud to endorse Joni as I know she will represent Iowa with honor and distinction.
Election Day is six days away, and Joni is riding a fresh wave of momentum. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Ernst leading her opponent, 49 percent to 45 percent.

Ernst is inspiring Iowans and earning their support. You can learn more about her here.

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Tim Cameron | October 29, 2014 |
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